Date of Award

4-28-2023

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Business Admin.

Department

Economics

First Advisor

Dean Croushore

Second Advisor

Taylor Arnold

Abstract

Since the economic reform known as Doi Moi (Renovation) in 1986, Vietnam has changed from one of the world’s poorest to a middle-income country in one generation (USAID, 2022). The country has consistently registered high and stable economic growth since the reform, averaging 6.3% from 1985 to 2021 (World Bank, 2022). High growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) is good news, but it has also raised questions that go both ways. On one side, there is much speculation that the government of Vietnam has manipulated economic statistics, compared to the case of China and India. As quoted in Kinh Hoa (2017), Mr. Le, a Vietnamese economist, pointed out the discrepancies between the GDP growth rate and the growth rates of electricity use and net export, while Pesek (2019) raised doubts about Hanoi’s GDP revision, claiming that it provided the government with perfect cover for increasing borrowing. Recently, Mr. Nguyen, former Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, (quoted in Giang, 2021) questioned the country’s 5.4% growth rate during the first six months of 2021 when many large cities and provinces were under social distancing and the majority of businesses closed. He argued that the consumption was lower than the same period in 2020 and net exports were negative. However, on the other side, evidences from the recent GDP revisions (Dinh, 2021) and the large and increasing informal economy (T. H. Nguyen, 2019; Cling, Razafindrakoto, & Rouband, 2011; Nghiem & Rouband, 2022) suggest that Vietnam’s actual economic growth might be higher than reported.

Additional Files
2023-Nguyen-form.pdf (663 kB)
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