In the shadow of the dragon: Chinese soft power in central Asia

DOI

10.1093/ia/iiaf103

Abstract

This article employs the theoretical framework of soft power to examine the complex and often contradictory dynamics of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in central Asia. It addresses two interrelated puzzles: first, why China's considerable economic investments and political influence have failed to translate into a corresponding increase in soft power across the region; and second, why responses to the BRI vary so markedly among central Asian states. While existing scholarship has largely emphasized concerns about debt and economic dependency, we argue that these explanations are insufficient on their own. Drawing on a mixed-methods approach that includes public opinion surveys, foreign-language media analysis, protest data, legislative changes and geospatial ethnic demography, we demonstrate that historically rooted territorial disputes and China's treatment of co-ethnic populations, particularly ethnic Kazakhs and Kyrgyz, play a critical role in undermining China's attractiveness. Contrary to China's intent to cultivate influence through a bundled strategy of economic incentives and cultural diplomacy, our findings reveal that such efforts often backfire, generating popular suspicion and nationalist backlash. The study contributes to the broader literature on soft power by emphasizing the limits of state-directed attraction in contexts marked by historical grievances and ethnonational sensitivities.

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

7-1-2025

Publisher Statement

Copyright © 2025 Oxford University Press

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