Date of Award


Document Type


Degree Name

Bachelor of Science



First Advisor

Dr. Dean Croushore


This paper builds on recent research utilizing real time datasets in order to assess the forecasting utility of consumer sentiment indexes in the United Kingdom. Academic researchers have consistently found that consumer confidence indexes accurately predict consumer spending in the near term. Few of these examinations, however, have utilized out of sample forecasting and only one has incorporated real time data. In an effort to recreate the exact dataset that is available to economic forecasters in real time, this paper utilizes the recently published Gross Domestic Product Real-Time Database from the Bank of England in order to produce forecasts of consumer spending growth. The results of the root mean forecasting error analysis indicate that the inclusion of a consumer sentiment index in a VAR forecast does not improve the accuracy of the model.

Included in

Economics Commons