Unlike previous papers, which have focused on the timeliness ranks, we examine Value Line’s 3–5 year projections for stock returns, earnings, sales and related measures. We find that Value Line’s stock return and earnings forecasts exhibit large positive bias, although their sales predictions do not. For stock returns, Value Line’s projections lack predictive power; for other variables predictive power may exist to some degree. Our findings suggest the spectacular past performance of the timeliness indicator reflects either close alignment with other known anomalies or data mining, and that investors and researchers should use Value Line’s long-term projections with caution.
Copyright © 2008 Elsevier B.V. Article first published online: 24 AUG 2008. DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.06.002
The definitive version is available at: http://ac.els-cdn.com/S0378426607002361/1-s2.0-S0378426607002361-main.pdf?_tid=c630a596-6379-11e4-b2d9-00000aacb35f&acdnat=1415033719_982b0a9384f6bc7c1691761846848ef0
Szakmary, Andrew C., C. Mitchell Conover, and Carol Lancaster. "An Examination of Value Line’s Long-term Projections." Journal of Banking & Finance 32, no. 5 (May 2008): 820-33. doi:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.06.002.
Szakmary, Andrew; Conover, C. Mitchell; and Lancaster, Carol, "An Examination of Value Line’s Long-term Projection" (2008). Finance Faculty Publications. 30.