Date of Award

Summer 1963

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Arts

Department

Economics

Abstract

In the years since World War II, our economy has continued to experlence alternating periods of expansion and contraction. Although there have been notable structural and institutional changes in the past twenty-five years In our economic system, the business cycle ls still a very Important aspect of business life. Thus, the problem of minimizing instability has come to occupy a front-row position In our business and economic thought. In order to work toward this objective, we must know at any given time where we are in the business cycle and the probable course that future developments will take. For this kind of information we rely on our business and economic indicators. There­ fore, we must strive to develop indicators that are accurate, readily available, and comprehensive . A great number of statistical series that reflect economic conditions in one way or another arc used as business and economic indicators.

Efforts will continue to be made to improve both the indicators themselves and the ability to interpret them . Emphasis will continue to be placed on accuracy and availability. The author has singled out bank debits for this study because they are comprehensive and readily available. Demand deposits have grown tremendously since World War II, and over ninety per cent of all monetary transactions are now handled by check.

The purpose of this study is to make a complete anal sis of bank debits as a cyclical indicator in order to evaluate the usefulness of this series as a cyclical indicator of economic activity, using the past as a guide to the future.

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